Wednesday, 23 March 2022 11:42

(March) U.S. Treasury Bond (ZB)

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Seasonal strategies and patterns are based on a cycle forming progression or trend. There can be fundamental factors that occur every year and can cause seasonal moves, but seasonality also includes time spans other than those based on the calendar year. A seasonal pattern is an identifiable seasonal movement between two dates. Seasonal patterns can be short-, medium-, or long-term in nature and can overlap as well. Seasonal trends can change, making it important to test the validity of a seasonal pattern. This is illustrated in agricultural commodities when new storage technologies are introduced. That’s why it’s necessary to check the relative recent past for a pattern’s occurrence. Additionally the pattern should appear in a large number of past years, increasing the probability that the move is actually seasonal in nature. Be sure to analyze both short term and long term patterns to validate patterns. There is no guarantee that price patterns will recur in the future. Even if seasonal pattern occurs in the future, it doesn't indicate profitable trades or establishment of higher insurance gurantees. There is no implication that anyone has in the past or will in the future accomplish profits, indemnities or arbitrage using these patterns.

Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance.

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Read 236 times Last modified on Wednesday, 23 March 2022 11:51
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Stephen was born and raised in Northwest Oklahoma where he grew up working on a farm and ranch. His interest in Agriculture led him to pursue a degree in Agronomy from Oklahoma State University in which he graduated in 2000. During his time at Oklahoma State, Stephen interned for Crop Quest as a Crop Consultant, worked at the Oklahoma State Peanut Labratory, and worked a summer for Refco as a floor runner on the Chicago Board of Trade. Upon graduating he worked back on his farm and for an aerial applicator making chemical recommendations; as well as, directing and managing alfalfa operations. Later Stephen returned to school and recieved an MBA from University of Central Oklahoma. In 2004, Stephen joined AgriLogic, Inc and worked as a Research Analyst performing research, anaylsis, recommendations and writing for contracts with the USDA's Risk Management Agency (Federal Crop Insurance Corporation). Stephen remained at AgriLogic for more than 10 years where he become a crop insurance professional with over 10 years experience in the research and development of innovative risk management products and service, a strategic thinker and leader of many divisions with solid skill set in the areas of private product development, mapping, underwriting, claims, and quantitative analysis. Following his time at AgriLogic, Stephen became the Director of Information Technology at Ag Resource Management, whereby he was responsible for IT strategy and product development of ARM's underwriting technology.

www.linkedin.com/pub/stephen-hardison/4/a42/a5a/
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