Monday, 14 February 2022 14:42

(October) NYMEX RBOB Gasoline (RB)

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Seasonal strategies and patterns are based on a cycle forming progression or trend. There can be fundamental factors that occur every year and can cause seasonal moves, but seasonality also includes time spans other than those based on the calendar year. A seasonal pattern is an identifiable seasonal movement between two dates. Seasonal patterns can be short-, medium-, or long-term in nature and can overlap as well. Seasonal trends can change, making it important to test the validity of a seasonal pattern. This is illustrated in agricultural commodities when new storage technologies are introduced. That’s why it’s necessary to check the relative recent past for a pattern’s occurrence. Additionally the pattern should appear in a large number of past years, increasing the probability that the move is actually seasonal in nature. Be sure to analyze both short term and long term patterns to validate patterns. There is no guarantee that price patterns will recur in the future. Even if seasonal pattern occurs in the future, it doesn't indicate profitable trades or establishment of higher insurance gurantees. There is no implication that anyone has in the past or will in the future accomplish profits, indemnities or arbitrage using these patterns.

Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance.

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