Agrestic Research Blog

Displaying items by tag: Harvest Price

Updated soybean base price and harvest price analysis over 49 years suggest that 55% of the time the harvest price (October Average) will be less than the base price (February Average). Further analysis suggest that the harvest price will not be more or less than 1.2 standard deviations away from the base price at harvest price discovery. This creates an opportunity to establish a price range and use options to credit as much as 15 to 25 cents per bushel back to the producer offsetting crop insurance premium cost.

The 2022 Base Price will not finalize until 2-28-2022.

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Updated corn base price and harvest price analysis over 49 years suggest that 63% of the time the harvest price (October Average) will be less than the base price (February Average). Further analysis suggest that the harvest price will not be more or less than 1.4 standard deviations away from the base price at harvest price discovery. This creates an opportunity to establish a price range and use options to credit as much as 15 to 25 cents per bushel back to the producer offsetting crop insurance premium cost.

The 2022 Base Price will not finalize until 2-28-2022.

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Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat base price and harvest price analysis over 48 years suggest that 57% of the time the harvest price (July Average) will be less than the base price (Prior September Average). Further analysis suggest that the harvest price will not be more or less than 1.25 standard deviations away from the base price at harvest price discovery. This creates an opportunity to establish a price range and use options to credit as much as 15 to 25 cents per bushel back to the producer offsetting crop insurance premium cost.

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